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 Sunspot
activity to peak in 2012
 The
year 2012 might not be such a good one if you
happen to own a satellite or a lot of shares
in the electricity generating business. That's
because 2012 is being forecast as the peak
of the next sunspot cycle, and physicists are
saying it's going to be an active one.
Sunspots are regions of the solar surface that
are darker and cooler than their surroundings. Caused
by fluctuations in the intense magnetic field
that surrounds our closest star, sunspot activity
increases and decreases on an 11-year cycle. Intense
sunspot activity brings with it solar storms.
, events where charged particles stream off the
surface of the sun, with the potential to wreak
havoc with our planet's upper atmosphere. During
solar storms, satellites can be damaged, power
transmission can be disrupted and the skies light
up with auroras. There are also links between
sunspot activity and climate.
Researchers at the National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder,
Colorado, have used a new model of the sun's
interior to refine predictions of future sunspot
activity. By using data going back over
a century, the scientists were able to determine
that the sun's magnetic field has a memory of
around 20 years. This model was able to
predict the past six cycles with around 97 percent
accuracy, and has led to revised predictions
about the next cycle, number 24.
According to Mausimi Dikpati, one of the physicists
who gave a press conference, the next sunspot cycle will be between
30 and 50 percent stronger than the current cycle,
with a peak in activity in 2012. Armed
with a six year warning, mission planners at
NASA, satellite controllers and engineers in
the power industry ought to have ample time to
take this looming danger into account.
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